Stunning recovery of Arctic Sea Ice

 After a temporary decline in mid September that caused a lot of clamor and lamentations among the alarmists, the Arctic Sea ice has now made a stunning recovery to the levels it had at the beginning of September. This is what happens every September: the Arctic Sea ice melts a bit, and then it refreezes again. It is a perfectly natural phenomenon, although not yet fully understood, and it gives no reason for alarm. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with any Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. Just look at the green dashed curve which represents the Arctic Sea ice during 2007: we see exactly the same pattern. The recovery is even a bit earlier this year. So much for the doom-sayers' predictions of imminent doom!

I Was Right About the Arctic Ice!

My prediction that the conditions in the Arctic Sea would return to normal after the humongous but perfectly natural storm last month was spot on! As can be seen in the chart above, the Arctic sea ice is not melting any more, and all we have to do now is to watch the swift recovery as it commences.

I was right, and I didn't need any fancy "computer models" or any fancy "satellites" or "instruments" or "tree-rings" or "PhDs": I just used my common sense and my diploma from the school of life, and Photoshop, to get it right. Unlike those taxpayermoney-grabbing ivory tower "PhDs" from NASA and NSIDC and whatever they call themselves.

A great triumph for Blog Science!

Arctic Sea Ice Recovery

Now that the Arctic storm in early August has abated, we can expect a quick recovery of the Arctic sea ice to normal conditions. I have indicated that in the figure above with a thick blue line. We can be sure that by mid September it will be above the 2007 line, so the sea ice minimum record from mid September 2007 will not be beaten. We are probably up for a new Little Ice Age in the next couple of years. It's all just natural cycles anyhow. One shouldn't believe anything from those IPCC climate models, which are just fancy computer games. That is why I do my predictions without any models what so ever. I only use observations and Photoshop.

Here is a hilarious cartoon by Josh, about George Moonbat!

Moonbat could be funny, as a kind of standup comedian, but he isn’t because he´s trying to sell an idea that will exactly do what he says he´s trying to prevent: the downfall of the Western World. He’s a usefull idiot to a grim and dangerous redgreen agenda.

Liar, Liar, Penguins on Fire!

Combusting emperor penguin breathing fire on a  Stevenson screen

Antarctic Stevenson screen finding itself in a warmer climate due to
penguin combustion. 

One of my esteemed colleagues, professor Watts, has recently suggested that the alleged warming on the Antarctic peninsula is an artifact due to the vicinity of meteorological stations to densely populated inhabited areas. While I'm convinced that this can explain part of the alleged warming, I believe that there are other factors in play as well. Natural factors. Or to be more specific: penguins.

A penguin's body consists of nearly 40% fat. Hence, a penguin is a very flammable creature, and it may incinerate at the merest exposure to fire or sparks (like fat Americans are known to do). Before there was human occupation on the Antarctic peninsula, penguins were rarely exposed to fire. However, now there are cigarette butts, discarded lighters, hot batteries, spark plugs, smouldering barbecue ashes and other sources of fire lying around everywhere, and hence the likelihood that a penguin catches fire has increased significantly. And a burning penguin can generate an enormous amount of heat. If the penguin then happens to be near to a meteorological station, then that station will record a dramatic increase in temperature. It is enough to have a few such incidents to obtain an artificial (or maybe I should say "Sphenisciformogene") but significant increase in recorded temperature on a small area like the Antarctic peninsula.

I will not be able to post any more for the next couple of hours, because I have to write a game-changing scientific paper expounding my discovery and submit it to some scientific journal. Stay tuned: this is going to be really really big.

Recommended Reading

I apologize for not being so active recently. I know how much this blog means to a lot of people, but I've had a bit of a hangover for the last couple of months.

Anyhow, there are some other excellent writers out there. In particular, I recommend this defense of the rational scientific public discourse:

Joe Bast’s Response to Scholars Feeling Pressure After Attacks on Heartland.

 Joe Bast responds to critics after the - as I see it - rather innocent billboard campaign showing that some leading murderous psychopats are also leading global warming alarmists. Some choice quotes:

Almost alone among think tanks, we focus on communicating with people who do not already agree with us. We rely on research and reason, not rhetoric and emotion, and still do.

...

Finally, regarding the billboard, after 15 years of being the target of vicious ad hominem attacks, we decided to punch back instead of stand back. Our billboard was factual: The Unabomber was motivated by concern over man-made global warming to do the terrible crimes he committed. He still believes in global warming. We simply put his picture on a billboard, pointed out the “inconvenient truth,” and asked, “do you?”

...

The mainstream media, which has tolerated and even promoted people who call global warming skeptics “Nazis” and “traitors’ and called for the death penalty for skeptics, now pretends to be “outraged” by this billboard. We took it down immediately and admitted that it was in poor taste and a mistake, but they continue to promote madmen on the other side of the issue including Michael Mann and Bill McKibben, and hypocritically pound on us for our “ethical lapse.” This is fake indignation, being staged by ideological extremists as part of the ongoing attack on us and our donors. It is not sincere, it is not accurate, and it is not ethical.

I also recommend the National Anxiety Center blog by Alan Caruba, who by the way is one of Heartland's experts. Alan has some great pieces.

Climate Nazis

What is it with the “warmists”, Al Gore and his clones who keep insisting the Earth is warming, that too much carbon dioxide (CO2) will be the death of us, and that we have to immediately stop burning “fossil fuels” if we are to save the planet? They are the most relentless liars on the face of the planet.

...

Antihumanism has been around a long time. As Dr. Zubin points out, it has taken the form of “Darwinism, eugenics, German militarism, Nazism, xenophobia, the population control movement, environmentalism, technophobia, and most recently, the incredibly demented climatophobic movement, which seeks to justify mass human sacrifice for the purpose of weather control.” Al Gore, James Hansen, and even President Obama’s science advisor, John Holden, are card-carrying members of this cult. In 1971 Holden co-authored “Global Ecology” with Paul Ehrlich, famed for his 1968 book, “The Population Bomb.” They wrote “when a population of organisms grows in a finite environment, sooner or later, it will encounter a resource limit. This phenomenon, described by ecologists as reaching the ‘carrying capacity’ of the environment, applies to bacteria on a culture dish, to fruit flies in a jar of agar, and to buffalo on a prairie. It must also apply to man on this finite planet.” So you need to understand that you are no better than a fruit fly and you need to die in order to avoid depleting the planet’s supply of food and its energy resources. God knows I would like to ignore or—better still—never have to hear from these climate Nazis, but that is not going to happen so long as The New York Times, the United Nations, and a host of others keep repeating their lethal lies.

Playing God with "Endangered Species"

The answer is that the ESA was never about endangered species. It is a blunt instrument of environmental groups and those within the federal government to delay development anywhere in the nation. Almost 1,400 species on the government’s list are listed as “threatened” and none of them can be expected to avoid extinction, a natural process that cannot be impeded by human intervention.

...

The only species that is endangered is the human species as environmental organizations continue to deny access and use of American land needed for growing crops, raising livestock, mining and drilling for energy resources, and building any new improvements including hospitals and other properties that would contribute to the welfare of the human inhabitants of planet Earth. Not only is the ESA a huge bureaucratic failure, it is testimony to the arrogance and evil intent of the environmental movement to harm any form of economic activity and growth in America. It is their way of playing God despite millions of years in which the extinction of species has been part of life on the planet. If dinosaurs still roamed the Earth, the ESA would declare them threatened and endangered.

Et tu, Fred?

Just like Brute betrayed Ceasar, so has Singer betrayed
climate skepticism.

Gallia omnia est divisa in partes tres. All of Gaul is divided into three parts.

This quote by Julius Caesar begins a new essay by Fred Singer in the American Thinker. Singer, a longstanding opponent to the AGW scam, writes that like Gaul, the global warming debate is dvided into three parts: the deniers, the skeptics and the warmists. The title of the essay is:
"Climate Deniers Are Giving Us Skeptics a Bad Name"

The term "climate deniers", as you know, was invented by the econazi Sturmabteilung-Hitler-jugend global warming fascists in order to make sound scientific skepticism appear equivalent to holocaust denial.

So who is Fred so ignobly calling "climate deniers"? He writes:

Now let me turn to the deniers. One of their favorite arguments is that the greenhouse effect does not exist at all because it violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics -- i.e., one cannot transfer energy from a cold atmosphere to a warmer surface. It is surprising that this simplistic argument is used by physicists, and even by professors who teach thermodynamics. One can show them data of downwelling infrared radiation from CO₂, water vapor, and clouds, which clearly impinge on the surface. But their minds are closed to any such evidence.
Then there is another group of deniers who accept the existence of the greenhouse effect but argue about the cause and effect of the observed increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. One subgroup holds that CO₂ levels were much higher in the 19^th century, so there really hasn't been a long-term increase from human activities. They even believe in a conspiracy to suppress these facts. Another subgroup accepts that CO₂ levels are increasing in the 20^th century but claims that the source is release of dissolved CO₂ from the warming ocean. In other words, they argue that oceans warm first, which then causes the CO₂ increase. In fact, such a phenomenon is observed in the ice-core record, where sudden temperature increases precede increases in CO₂. While this fact is a good argument against the story put forth by Al Gore, it does not apply to the 20^th century: isotopic and other evidence destroys their case.
Another subgroup simply says that the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ is so small that they can't see how it could possibly change global temperature. But laboratory data show that CO₂ absorbs IR radiation very strongly. Another subgroup says that natural annual additions to atmospheric CO₂ are many times greater than any human source; they ignore the natural sinks that have kept CO₂ reasonably constant before humans started burning fossil fuels. Finally, there are the claims that major volcanic eruptions produce the equivalent of many years of human emission from fossil-fuel burning. To which I reply: OK, but show me a step increase in measured atmospheric CO₂ related to a volcanic eruption.

 Yes, those that Singer so disgracefully labels "deniers" are those who are truly skeptical to AGW. These are the genuine skeptics. Singer calls himself a skeptic, but he really believe in central parts of the warmist dogma.

Fred Singer, if you are going to combat witches, you cannot run around with a broom and a black cat. There is no such thing as selling only half your of soul to the devil. A bird cannot fly with only half a wing.

If we concede that some of the things the eco-fascists claim are true, how is Joe Sixpack going to remember what is true and what is false? Joe Sixpack is only going to be confused.You are playing into the hands of the warmists, Fred.
And who the hell are the "Us Skeptics"  you think you are speaking for? A small bunch of fence-sitters who think they are so smart they can outsmart the 2nd law of thermodynamics? Without us real skeptics, we the doubters of every tenet of the AGW religion, you are nothing, Fred. You are nothing, nothing, nothing!

You are free to believe in this AWG nonsense, Fred, if you so wish, but I'm warning you: don't come and tell us what to think! We are entitled to our own facts! That is what skepticism and science really is about.

Luckily, the people that comment Fred's essay are almost uniformly against it. They are only common folks, but they are much more well informed than Dr Singer. They are the true scientists and the real skeptics. It is Dr Singer, not them, that make us real skeptics a bad name.

This is what some of these good people write.

FalconTinker:

Fred, if I'm a denier for concluding that there's a conspiracy to suppress facts, then put me in that category. I think that the Climategate 'hide the decline' email proved that beyond a reasonable doubt.

Vegetarian:

This article seems a bit naive. When one realizes that the warmistas are not telling the truth, yet they are praised and rewarded by political allies, then you must conclude the whole theory is a scam and discount it. Now if independently one starts engaging in real science and starts proving a connection between CO2 and temperatures, then we can then start engaging in a real scientific process which must include individual verification.

Jerseyvet:

The author doesn't address the common conclusion that the climate change kerfuffle is more religious than scientific. The Gaia worshippers are hellbent to protect and embrace the earth and its environment. Funny thing, one massive explosion of a volcano can do more damage in a fortnight than hundreds of factories spewing CO2 into the environment for a number of years!

nanNJ:

How come all these wizards of smart still can't even predict the weather 3 days out? Put me on the denier side.

WeMustResist:

I think that there is a Carbon Dioxide warming effect that had been found in labs but not in the field. I hope that make me a skeptic.
I also think that the climate is changing every second. It is never the same.
What I really deny is:
1) Politicians can control the temperature of the atmosphere, or the troposphere, or the climate of this planet.
2) The climate of the whole globe changed (at the same time) in the twentieth century.
3) Any climate changes which have happened in two continents at the same time have been shown to have the same manmade cause in both continents.
I am sure that events beyond the solar system change our climate much more than humans can change our climate.

AnneCink:

Supporters of global warming love to write about the diversity of interests on the subject. They talk about levels of agreement like
"warmists" and "deniers".
Yet, when it comes to financing their beliefs, where's the diversity? They want everyone to pay an equal part in support of their cause, whether you believe in it or not. If they want to put money down that hole, let them form a non-profit and donate their own money to it.

angrytom:

No man can undo what God has done!Sorry Mr.Singer but if you think man can destroy this planet you are totally wrong! I seem to remember that during the last couple million years our earth has has experienced massive volcanic activity,massive flooding and other catastrophic events.here we are.We are still here.All you warmistas which you are one need to take a closer look at yourselves because your God complex is really getting tiresome!One man can kill another.But no man can kill the human race!And no one but nature(God) can undo what nature(God)has done!

angrytom:

P.S.One super volcano eruption spews more pollutants than all the cars,trucks,boats,airplanes combined have produced in the history of the world!!

Rick+Johnson:

What a safe position, Dr. Singer. This is the typical PC approach - both sides have their extremists. You probably think the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto had their extremists as well.

Lets finish with a funny picture:

"Who believes that CO2 causes global warming?
Then the science is settled. Sehr gut, mein Volk!"

Now at WUWT: Astrologer refutes global warming from chlorofluorocarbons

It is always nice to see a real scientist from one of the hard sciences take on the pseudoscientific superstition of "global climate warming change".  Therefore, the post 'A view of climate “on the ground” from a reporter who was there at the beginning' on WUWT by distinguished astrologer Theodore White is a must read.  I quote:

...
But I digress – in short, when I wrote pieces on the climate, I refused to write on the theory that chlorofluorocarbons were the sole cause of worldwide warming because that had never been proved. Now, though there was evidence that the use of aerosols were clearly evident in the upper atmosphere; the data did not support that this was the cause of the fear-mongering on ozone holes which was all the rage in the climate community of the late 1980s and 1990s.
...
Follow the money pushing the ideological AGW lie. If one examines climate science funding from 1986 to 1996 and then from 1996 to the present – you may find some amazing numbers.
Incredible amounts – increasing yearly and wasted on every bigger and more expensive computers to run models. Careerists who cannot forecast seasonal weather were making things up (and began to alter weather data on purpose) while spending lavishly on computers pushing the AGW ideology – all at the public’s great expense.
....
Still, by 1989, the AGW science did not make sense to me in light that it would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Which I remind everyone – remains in effect to this very day.

Anyhow, it did not seem to matter to Wirth’s office, Hansen, or the growing careerists at NCAR and NOAA; because whomever was pushing ‘man-made global warming’ on the United States, were also doing it at the international level too.

My view was that it was a conspiracy right from the start to bamboozle the world on the lie of anthropogenic global warming sandbagging much of the mainstream media, the markets and the educational system to not believe their own eyes and ears.
....

With such high-quality contributions, it is no wonder that Whats Up with Watts won the 2012 Weblog Award for Best Science or Technology Weblog.